My team completed its seventh sprint of a project. Once again all stories were accepted by the product owner.
While one of the team member was giving the sprint demo, I started looking in more detail at some of the numbers. Because with seven sprints behind us, we've gathered quite some data on the progress from sprint to sprint. That's the velocity, for XP practitioners.
Looking at the data
So far we've had 131 story points of functionality accepted by the product owner, so that's an average of 18-19 per sprint. The distribution has not really been all that stable though. Here's a chart showing the number of accepted story points per sprint:
Although it is a bit difficult to see the trend in sprint 1 to 5, we seemed to be going slightly upward. This is in line with what you'd expect in any project: as the team gets more used to the project and to each other, performance increases a bit.
The jump from sprint 5 to sprint 6 however is very clearly visible. This jump should come as no surprise when I tell you that our team was expanded from 3 developers to 5 developers in sprint 6 and 7. And as you can clearly see, those additional developers were contributing to the team velocity right from the start.
But how much does each developer contribute? To see that we divide the number of accepted story points per sprint by the number of developers in that sprint:
Apparently we've been pretty consistently been implementing 5 story points per developer per sprint. There was a slight drop in sprint 6, which is also fairly typical when you add more developers to a project. But overall you can say that our velocity per developer has been pretty stable.
Given this stability it suddenly becomes a simple (but still interesting) exercise to try and project when the project will be completed. All you need in addition to the data from the previous sprints, is an indication of the total estimate of all stories on the product backlog. We've been keeping track of that number too, so plotting both the work completed vs. the total scope gives the following chart:
So it looks like we indeed will be finished with the project after one more sprint. That is of course, if the product owner doesn't all of a sudden change the scope. Or we find out that our initial estimates for the remaining stories were way off. After all: it's an agile project, so anything can happen.
Story points vs. ideal man days vs. real man weeks
Whenever I talk about this "number of story points per developer per sprint" to people on other projects, they inevitably ask the same question. What is a story point? The correct Scrum answer would be that it doesn't matter what unit it is. It's a story point and we do about five story points per developer per sprint.
But of course there is a different unit behind the story points. When our team estimates its stories, we ask ourselves the question: if I were locked into a room with no phone or other disturbances and a perfect development setup, after how many days would I have this story completed? So a story point is a so-called "ideal man day".
From the results so far we can see that apparently this is a pretty stable way to estimate the work required. And stability is most important, way more important than for example absolute correctness.
A classic project manager might take the estimate of the team (in ideal man days) and divide that by 5 to get to the ideal man weeks. Then divide by the number of people in the team to get to the number of weeks it should take the team to complete the work. And of course they'll add some time to the plan for "overhead", being the benevolent leaders that they are. This will give them a "realistic" deadline for the project. A deadline that somehow is never made, much to the surprise and outrage of the classic project manager.
I'm just a Scrum master on the project. So I don't set deadlines. And I don't get to be outraged when we don't make the deadline. All I can do is study the numbers and see what it tells me. And what it tells me for the current project is that the number are pretty stable. And that's the way I like it.
But there is a bit more you can do with the numbers. If you know that the developers in the team estimate in "ideal man days", you can also determine how many ideal man days fit into a real week. For that you need to know the length of a sprint.
Our team has settled on a sprint length of four weeks. That's the end-to-end time between the sprints. So four weeks after the end of sprint 3, we are at the end of sprint 4. In those four weeks, we have two "slack days". One of those is for the acceptance test and demo. The other is for the retro and planning of the next sprint.
So there is two days of overhead per sprint. But there is a lot more overhead during the sprint, so in calculations that span multiple sprints I tend to think of those two days as part of the sprint.
So a sprint is simply four weeks. And in a sprint a developer on average completes 5 story points, which is just another way of saying 5 ideal man days. So in a real week there is 1.25 ideal man days!
I just hope that our managers don't read this post. Because their initial reaction will be: "What? What are you doing the rest of the time? Is there any way we can improve this number? Can't you people just work harder?"
Like I said before: I don't believe in that logic. It's classic utilization-focused project management. It suggests that you should try to have perfect estimates and account for all variables so that you can come to a guaranteed delivery date. The problem with that is that it doesn't work! If there's anything that decades of software engineering management should have taught us, is that there are too many unknown factors to get any kind of certainty on the deadline. So until we get more control of those variables, I'd much rather have a stable velocity than a high utilization.